Measuring the Impacts of Global Trade Reform with Optimal Aggregators of Distortions

Laborde, David ; Martin, Will ; van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique

关键词: ACCOUNTING;    ADVERSE IMPACTS;    AGRICULTURAL TRADE;    AGRICULTURE;    APPAREL;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-5665
RP-ID  :  WPS5665

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

Traditional weighted-average measures oftrade distortions are widely used in analyzing global andregional reforms, despite well-known deficiencies. Thispaper develops and applies optimal aggregators for thereal-world case of multiple countries and commodities withmuch more detailed information on trade than on productionand consumption. The approach reflects the fact thatdifferent aggregators are needed for expenditure on importedgoods and for tariff revenues, and allows for incorporationof both intensive and extensive margins of adjustment toreform. Applications confirm that the technique isstraightforward enough for widespread use, and point toclose to a doubling of the welfare gains at the intensivemargin when using the highest possible level ofinternational commodity disaggregation, with larger gains indeveloping regions than in the industrial countries. Themeasured income gains increase along the entire path ofliberalization, with slightly larger increases in theearlier stages, where the gaps between the responses of theexpenditure and tariff revenue aggregators are largest.Sensitivity analysis suggests that, for global trade reform,the ease of substitution between tariff lines is much moreimportant than that between varieties from different countries.