Long-Term Mitigation Strategies and Marginal Abatement Cost Curves : A Case Study on Brazil

Vogt-Schilb, Adrien ; Hallegatte, Stephane ; de Gouvello, Christophe

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: ABATEMENT COSTS;    ABATEMENT MEASURES;    ABATEMENT POTENTIAL;    AIR;    ALLOWABLE CARBON EMISSIONS;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-6808
RP-ID  :  WPS6808

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

Decision makers facing abatement targetsneed to decide which abatement measures to implement, and inwhich order. This paper investigates the ability of marginalabatement cost (MAC) curves to inform this decision,reanalysing a MAC curve developed by the World Bank onBrazil. Misinterpreting MAC curves and focusing onshort-term targets (e.g., for 2020) would lead tounder-invest in expensive, long-to-implement andlarge-potential options, such as clean transportationinfrastructure. Meeting short-term targets with marginalenergy-efficiency improvements would lead tocarbon-intensive lock-ins that make longer-term targets(e.g., for 2030 and beyond) impossible or too expensive toreach. Improvements to existing MAC curves are proposed,based on (1) enhanced data collection and reporting; (2) asimple optimization tool that accounts for constraints onimplementation speeds; and (3) new graphical representationsof MAC curves. Designing climate mitigation policies can bedone through a pragmatic combination of two approaches. Thesynergy approach is based on MAC curves to identify thecheapest mitigation options and maximize co-benefits. Theurgency approach considers the long-term objective (e.g.,halving emissions by 2050) and works backward to identifyactions that need to be implemented early, such as publicsupport to clean infrastructure and zero-carbon technologies.