Macroeconomic and Policy Implications of Population Aging in Brazil

Jorgensen, Ole Hagen

关键词: ACCOUNTING;    AGE MORTALITY;    AGGREGATE DEBT;    AGING COUNTRIES;    ALTERNATIVE FINANCING;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-5519
RP-ID  :  WPS5519

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

This paper analyzes the macroeconomicimplications of population aging in Brazil. Threealternative yet complementary methodologies are adopted, anddepending on policy responses to the fiscal implications ofaging, there are two main findings: First, saving ratescould increase and not necessarily fall as a consequence ofaging in Brazil -- thus contradicting conventional views.Second, lifetime wealth across generations could increase --as capital deepening generates a second demographicdividend. Two policy responses to aging are emphasized:First, a structural policy response of linking mandatoryretirement (or entitlement) ages to increasing lifeexpectancy would boost labor supply and reduce the fiscalcosts of aging. Second, in terms of preferable parametricpolicy responses, the second demographic dividend will bepromoted to the highest extent by keeping taxes and debtunchanged while allowing public pensions to adjust downward.Such a policy response would keep pensions from furthercrowding out private saving -- thus balancing capitalaccumulation with intergenerational income distribution. Inconclusion, Brazil will not necessarily experience a fall insaving and growth, but if government policies areappropriately, adequately, and timely formulated, populationaging is likely to lead to substantial capital deepening andincreases in lifetime income, wealth, and welfare.