Risky Business : Political Instability and Greenfield Foreign Direct Investment in the Arab World

Burger, Martijn ; Ianchovichina, Elena ; Rijkers, Bob

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: ACCOUNTING;    ADVERTISING;    AFFILIATED ORGANIZATIONS;    ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENT;    ALTERNATIVE METHODS;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-6716
RP-ID  :  WPS6716

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

Which foreign direct investments aremost affected by political instability? Analysis ofquarterly greenfield investment flows into countries in theMiddle East and North Africa from 2003 to 2012 shows thatadverse political shocks are associated with significantlyreduced investment inflows in the non-resource tradablesectors. By contrast, investments in natural resourcesectors and non-tradable activities appear insensitive tosuch shocks. Consistent with these patterns, the significantreduction in investment inflows in Arab Spring affectedeconomies was starkest in the non-resource manufacturingsector. Political instability is thus associated withincreased reliance on non-tradables and aggravated resourcedependence. Conversely, how intensified politicalinstability affects aggregate foreign direct investment iscritically contingent on the initial sector composition ofthese flows.