Poverty Impacts of the Volume-Based Special Safeguard Mechanism

Ivanic, Maros ; Martin, Will

World Bank Group, Washington, DC

关键词: ABSOLUTE POVERTY;    ADVERSE EFFECT;    ADVERSE IMPACTS;    AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES;    AGRICULTURAL OUTPUT;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-7006
RP-ID  :  WPS7006

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

The volume-based Special SafeguardMechanism was proposed as essential for small, poor farmersand became the proximate cause of the collapse of the DohaAgenda negotiations in 2008. But is it helpful for thesefarmers, given that it is likely to be applied when farmoutput is depressed and many poor farmers in developingcountries need to buy food? Stochastic simulations for 31countries suggest that use of this safeguard in line withthe proposed World Trade Organization rules would raise theworld poverty headcount by an average of 24 million. Theadverse poverty impact of the duty is larger when thequantity safeguard is triggered than it would be in otheryears, because lower farm output levels reduce or reversethe benefits to poor farm households from higher prices.