Avoiding the Fragility Trap in Africa

Andrimihaja, Noro Aina ; Cinyabuguma, Matthias ; Devarajan, Shantayanan

关键词: ABSOLUTE TERMS;    ACCOUNTING;    AGGREGATE GROWTH;    AGGREGATE INCOME;    BALANCED ECONOMIC GROWTH;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-5884
RP-ID  :  WPS5884

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

Not only do Africa's fragile statesgrow more slowly than non-fragile states, but they seem tobe caught in a "fragility trap". For instance, theprobability that a fragile state in 2001 was still fragilein 2009 was 0.95. This paper presents an economic modelwhere three features -- political instability and violence,insecure property rights and unenforceable contracts, andcorruption -- conspire to create aslow-growth-poor-governance equilibrium trap into whichthese fragile states can fall. The analysis shows that, byaddressing the three problems, fragile countries can emergefrom the fragility trap and enjoy a level of sustainedeconomic growth. But addressing these issues requiresresources, which are scarce because external aid is oftentailored to the country's performance and cut back whenthere is instability, insecurity, and corruption. Theimplication is that, even if aid is seemingly unproductivein these weak-governance environments, it could be hugelybeneficial if it is invested in such a way that it helpsthese countries tackle the root causes of instability,insecurity, and corruption. Empirical estimationscorroborate the postulated relationships of the model,supporting the notion that it is possible for Africanfragile countries to avoid the fragility trap.