Social Impacts of Climate Change in Chile : A Municipal Level Analysis of the Effects of Recent and Future Climate Change on Human Development and Inequality

Andersen, Lykke E. ; Verner, Dorte

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: AIR;    AIR TEMPERATURE;    ALTITUDE;    ANNUAL PRECIPITATION;    ANTARCTICA;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-5170
RP-ID  :  WPS5170

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

This paper uses municipality level datato estimate the general relationship between climate,income, and life expectancy in Chile. The analysis findsthat incomes are negatively related to temperature, whilelife expectancy is not significantly related to averagetemperatures. Both incomes and life expectancy are greaterin areas with either very little rain or a lot of rain. Theauthors use the estimated relationships to simulate theeffects of both past (1958-08) and future (2008-58) climatechange. The findings indicate that past climate change hasbeen favorable for the central, and most populous, part ofChile, and it has contributed to reduced poverty and reducedinequality of health outcomes. Whereas temperatures in thepast have shown a downward trend for most of the Chileanpopulation, climate models suggest that they will increasein the future, and that there will be a reduction inprecipitation in the central part of Chile. The analysissimulates the likely effects of these projected climatechanges over the next 50 years. The findings suggest thatexpected future climate will tend to reduce incomes acrossthe whole country, with an average reduction of about 7percent, all other things equal.