Challenges to MDG Achievement in Low Income Countries : Lessons from Ghana and Honduras

Bussolo, Maurizio ; Medvedev, Denis

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: ACCESS TO SAFE WATER;    ACCOUNTING;    AGGREGATE COSTS;    ALLOCATION;    ANNUAL GROWTH;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-4383
RP-ID  :  WPS4383

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

This paper summarizes the policy lessonsfrom applications of the Maquette for MDG Simulations (MAMS)model to two low income countries: Ghana and Honduras.Results show that costs of MDGs achievement could reach10-13 percent of GDP by 2015, although, given the observedlow productivity in the provision of social services,significant savings may be realized by improving efficiency.Sources of financing also matter: foreign aid inflows canreduce international competitiveness through real exchangeappreciation, while domestic financing can crowd out theprivate sector and slow poverty reduction. Spending a largeshare of a fixed budget on growth-enhancing infrastructuremay mean sacrificing some human development, even if highergrowth is usually associated with lower costs of socialservices. The pursuit of MDGs increases demand for skills:while this encourages higher educational attainments, in theshort term this could lead to increased income inequalityand a lower poverty elasticity of growth.