Is Extreme Poverty Going to End? An Analytical Framework to Evaluate Progress in Ending Extreme Poverty

Yoshida, Nobuo ; Uematsu, Hiroki ; Sobrado, Carlos E.

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: AGGREGATION BIAS;    ANNUAL GROWTH;    ANNUAL GROWTH RATE;    ANNUAL RATE;    AVERAGE ANNUAL;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-6740
RP-ID  :  WPS6740

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

The World Bank has recently adopted atarget of reducing the proportion of population living belowUS$1.25 a day at 2005 international prices to 3 percent by2030. This paper reviews different projection methods andestimates the global poverty rate of 2030 modifyingRavallion (2013)'s approach in that it introducescountry-specific economic and population growth rates andtakes into account the effect of changes in within-countryinequality. This paper then identifies key obstacles tomeeting the target and proposes a simple intermediate growthtarget under which the global poverty rate can be reduced to3 percent by 2030. The findings of the analysis lend supportto Basu (2013)'s argument that accelerating growth isnot enough and sharing prosperity within and acrosscountries is essential to end extreme poverty in one generation.