Is Uruguay More Resilient This Time? Distributional Impacts of a Crisis Similar to the 2001/02 Argentine Crisis

Cabanillas, Oscar Barriga ; Lugo, Maria Ana ; Nielsen, Hannah ; Rodriguez Castelan, Carlos ; Zanetti, Maria Pia

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: ADVERSE SELECTION;    AGRICULTURE;    ANNUAL GROWTH;    ANNUAL GROWTH RATE;    ANNUAL RATE;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-6849
RP-ID  :  WPS6849

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

The 2001/02 Argentine crisis had aprofound impact on Uruguay's economy. Uruguay'sgross domestic product shrank by 17.5 percent and theproportion of people living below the poverty line doubledin just two years. It took almost 10 years for the povertyrate to recover to its pre-crisis level. This paper uses amacro-micro simulation technique to simulate the impact of asimilar crisis on the current Uruguayan economy. Thesimulation exercise suggests that Uruguay would now be in abetter place to weather such a severe crisis. The impact onpoverty would be considerably lower, inequality would notchange significantly, and household incomes would be 8percent lower than in the absence of a crisis (almost 9percent lower for those households in the bottom 40 percentof the income distribution). Young individuals,female-headed households, those living in Montevideo, andthose who do not have complete secondary education are morevulnerable to falling into poverty were the crisis to strike.