Responding to Threats of Climate Change Mega-Catastrophes

Kousky, Carolyn ; Rostapshova, Olga ; Toman, Michael ; Zeckhauser, Richard

关键词: ABATEMENT;    ABATEMENT COSTS;    ABRUPT CLIMATE;    ABRUPT CLIMATE CHANGE;    ABSORPTION;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-5127
RP-ID  :  WPS5127

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

There is a low but uncertain probabilitythat climate change could trigger"mega-catastrophes," severe and at least partlyirreversible adverse effects across broad regions. Thispaper first discusses the state of current knowledge and thedefining characteristics of potential climate changemega-catastrophes. While some of these characteristicspresent difficulties for using standard rational choicemethods to evaluate response options, there is still a needto balance the benefits and costs of different possibleresponses with appropriate attention to the uncertainties.To that end, the authors present a qualitative analysis ofthree options for mitigating the risk of climatemega-catastrophes - drastic abatement of greenhouse gasemissions, development and implementation of geoengineering,and large-scale ex ante adaptation - against the criteria ofefficacy, cost, robustness, and flexibility. They discussthe composition of a sound portfolio of initial investmentsin reducing the risk of climate change mega-catastrophes.