Determinants of Export Survival in the Lao PDR

Stirbat, Liviu ; Record, Richard ; Nghardsaysone, Konesawang

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: ACCOUNTING;    AGGREGATION;    AGRICULTURE;    AREA;    ASPECT;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-6301
RP-ID  :  WPS6301

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

This paper explores a rich dataset ofmonthly firm-level data on the population of exporters ofLao PDR from 2005 to 2010. The survival analysis uses adiscrete-time logistic model based onfirm-product-destination triplets while accounting forunobserved heterogeneity. It looks in detail at the roleplayed by two important and related determinants ofsurvival: experience and networks. These are particularlyrelevant for developing countries, where relevant exportexperience in firms is likely to be limited and networksleveraging it all the more important. The analysis revealsthe positive impact of having prior experience with theexport product and destination, experience with importing,as well as using a developed neighboring country as launchplatform. Networks are found to be most relevant when theyare most specific -- the largest impact comes from provincelevel aggregations of firms selling the same product in thesame market during a particular month. A competing risksmodel was also investigated to discern the impact of thesedeterminants on the likelihood of experiencing an upgrade toa superior product versus termination when a trade contract ends.