Demand Forecasting Errors

Mackie, Peter ; Nellthorp, John ; Laird, James

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: AGGREGATION;    AREA;    BASE YEAR;    BUS;    BUS STOPS;   

RP-ID  :  33933

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

Demand forecasts form a key input to theeconomic appraisal. As such any errors present within thedemand forecasts will undermine the reliability of theeconomic appraisal. The minimization of demand forecastingerrors is therefore important in the delivery of a robustappraisal. This issue is addressed in this note byintroducing the key issues, and error types present withindemand forecasts (Section 1). Following that introductorysection the error types are described in more detail:measurement error (Section 2), model specification error(Section 3) and External or Exogenous Errors (Section 4).The final section presents a discussion on how to managedemand forecasting errors (Section 5).