Efficiency and Equity Implications of Oil Windfalls in Brazil

Jorgensen, Ole Hagen

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: ACCOUNTING;    AFFILIATED ORGANIZATIONS;    AGGREGATE CAPITAL STOCK;    AGGREGATE CONSUMPTION;    AGRICULTURE;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-6597
RP-ID  :  WPS6597

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

Large oil reserves off the coast ofBrazil may substantially increase the country s oil revenuein the future. A natural resource "curse" could bethe consequence if an appropriate share of the oil revenueis not invested. This issue is addressed in this paper forBrazil both theoretically and empirically by focusing on (i)the efficient allocation of oil revenue between investmentand consumption; and (ii) because it may be efficient toconsume a certain share of the oil revenue, thedistributional implications across generations of higherpublic consumption. The main finding is that, if thePre-Salt oil revenue brings the aggregate oil revenue inBrazil above 10 percent of gross domestic product, therewill be scope for consuming a certain share of it whilestill maintaining efficiency. But unless oil revenue reaches10 percent or more of gross domestic product, then all of itshould be invested in order for the economy to approach theefficient investment level. If oil revenue as a share ofgross domestic product was 10 percent, then the achievablegrowth in gross domestic product could reach 9.0 percent.The distributional implications are positive for allgenerations, but vary across generations depending on howmuch of the oil revenue is invested. As a result, transferpolicies could be adjusted to ensure equality in its distribution.