Impact of Behavioral Issues on Green Growth Policies and Weather-Related Disaster Reduction in Developing Countries

Kunreuther, Howard ; Michel-Kerjan, Erwann

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: ACCOUNTING;    ADMINISTRATIVE COSTS;    AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION;    ASSURANCE;    BANKS;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-6241
RP-ID  :  WPS6241

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

This paper focuses on how developingcountries can change the way they prepare for disasters sothey are better equipped to sustain economic growth. Itdiscusses the importance of considering the goals of keydecision makers and the need to understand the perceptions,systematics biases, and heuristics used by the relevantinterested parties (the affected public, private and publicsector organizations, and nongovernmental organizations) inchoosing between alternatives. The paper highlights theimportance of undertaking benefit-cost analysis to evaluatedisaster risk reduction measures, recognizing that decisionmakers might not make meaningful use of this policy toolgiven their behavioral biases and simplified heuristics. Toaddress these issues, the authors propose green growthstrategies that involve multi-year contracts coupled withshort-term incentives that have a chance of beingimplemented. The strategies focus on the role of multi-yearmicro-insurance, long-term loans, and multi-year catastrophebonds that reflect the institutional arrangements in thedeveloping country. The paper illustrates this proposal inthe case of farmers' agricultural practices andinvestment decisions that reduce losses to property fromcatastrophic disasters such as drought.