Cote d'Ivoire : Volatility, Shocks and Growth

Bogetic, Zeljko ; Espina, Carlos ; Noer, John

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: BIDDING;    BUSINESS CYCLES;    CAPITAL STOCK;    CHOCOLATE;    COCA;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-4415
RP-ID  :  WPS4415

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

Key economic variables in Coted'Ivoire vary widely from their long-run trends, movingin multi-year cyclical patterns.Cocoa prices move withcycles in growth rates, capital stock, real exchange rates,terms of trade, cocoa production, and coffee production andoutput. These patterns have become more pronounced since the1970s as volatility increased. This paper characterize thesecycles, estimates the cocoa price-quantity relationship, andanalyzes co-movements due to shocks generate a forecast.Three key conclusions follow. First, the economy of Coted'Ivoire has experienced two fundamental transitions,one in 1976 related to cocoa, and another in 1994 related toexchange rates. From 1960 to 1976, world cocoa prices grewsteadily, and then fell in real terms. The country'sgrowth showed a similar pattern. An econometric modelindicates that the relationship between cocoa price andquantity experienced a break in 1976 and provides evidenceof Cote d'Ivoire's significant influence on worldcocoa prices. Second, cocoa price shocks affect growth ratesand trade indicators, and are important sources ofvolatility in the Cote d'Ivoire. The terms of trade andreal exchange rate are also sources of volatility for growthand productivity.Third, a forecast of per-worker outputbased on these variables predicts continued declines in GDPper worker in Cote d'Ivoire for the near future.Thisdismal forecast implies the need for a radical and rapidimprovement on political, security, and economic managementto reverse the two and a half decades of economic decline.