Demand Collapse or Credit Crunch to Firms? Evidence from the World Bank's Financial Crisis Survey in Eastern Europe

Nguyen, Ha ; Qian, Rong

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: ACCESS TO CREDIT;    ACCESS TO FINANCE;    ADVERSE EFFECT;    BALANCE SHEET;    BALANCE SHEETS;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-6651
RP-ID  :  WPS6651

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

While there is a consensus that the2008-2009 crisis was triggered by financial marketdisruptions in the United States, there is little agreementon whether the transmission of the crisis and the subsequentprolonged recession are due to credit factors or to acollapse of demand for goods and services. This paperassesses whether the primary effect of the global crisis onEastern European firms took the form of an adverse demandshock or a credit crunch. Using a unique firm surveyconducted by the World Bank in six Eastern Europeancountries during the 2008-2009 financial crisis, the papershows that the drop in demand for firms' products andservices was overwhelmingly reported as the most damagingadverse effect of the crisis. Other "usualsuspects," such as rising debt or reduced access tocredit, are reported as minor. The paper also finds that thechanges in firms' sales and installed capacity aresignificantly and robustly correlated with the demandsensitivity of the sector in which the firms operate.However, they are not robustly correlated with variousproxies for firms' credit needs.