Capital Flight and War

Davies, Victor A.B.

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: ACCOUNTING;    ACCRUALS;    ASSETS;    AVERAGE LEVEL;    BANKING SYSTEM;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-4210
RP-ID  :  WPS4210

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

The author provides empirical evidenceon the effects of inflation on post-war capital flightflows. He tests the hypothesis that inflation has a positiveadditional impact on capital flight flows after war. He usesa new panel dataset of 77 developing countries, of which 35experienced at least one episode of war between 1971 and2000. The author uses a range of estimation methods and fourcapital flight measures-Cline, World Bank Residual, MorganGuarantee, and Dooley. The results consistently support theresearch hypothesis: Post-war inflation increases annualcapital flight flows by about 0.005 to 0.01 percentagepoints of GDP. This effect is substantial in total at highinflation rates. The implication is that low inflation helpsto curb capital flight in post-conflict economies.