The Impact of Trade with China and India on Argentina's Manufacturing Employment

Castro, Lucio ; Olarreaga, Marcelo ; Saslavsky, Daniel

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: AGGREGATE PRODUCTIVITY;    APPAREL;    CAPITAL ACCUMULATION;    CAPITAL STOCK;    CHANGES IN TRADE;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-4153
RP-ID  :  WPS4153

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

For many in Latin America, theincreasing participation of China and India in internationalmarkets is seen as a looming shadow of two "mightygiants" on the region's manufacturing sector. Arethey really mighty giants when it comes to their impact onmanufacturing employment? The authors attempt to answer thisquestion by estimating the effects of trade with China andIndia on Argentina's industrial employment. They use adynamic econometric model and industry level data toestimate the effects of trade with China and India on thelevel of employment in Argentina's manufacturingsector. Results suggest that trade with China and India onlyhad a small negative effect on industrial employment, evenduring the swift trade liberalization of the 1990s.