Aggregate Economic Shocks, Child Schooling and Child Health

Ferreira, Francisco H.G. ; Schady, Norbert

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: ABSENTEEISM;    ACCOUNTING;    ADOLESCENTS;    ADULT HEALTH;    ADULT MORTALITY;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-4701
RP-ID  :  WPS4701

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

Do aggregate economic shocks, such asthose caused by macroeconomic crises or droughts, reducechild human capital? The answer to this question hasimportant implications for public policy. If shocks reduceinvestments in children, they may transmit poverty from onegeneration to the next. This paper uses a simple frameworkto analyze the effects of aggregate economic shocks on childschooling and health. It shows that the expected effects areambiguous, because of a tension between income andsubstitution effects. The paper then reviews the recentempirical literature on the subject. In richer countries,like the United States, child health and education outcomesare counter-cyclical: they improve during recessions. Inpoorer countries, mostly in Africa and low-income Asia, theoutcomes are pro-cyclical: infant mortality rises, andschool enrollment and nutrition fall during recessions. Inthe middle-income countries of Latin America, the picture ismore nuanced: health outcomes are generally pro-cyclical,and education outcomes counter-cyclical. Each of thesefindings is consistent with the simple conceptual framework.The paper discusses possible implications for expenditure allocation.