Aggregate Income Shocks and Infant Mortality in the Developing World

Baird, Sarah ; Friedman, Jed ; Schady, Norbert

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: ABILITY TO PAY;    ADULT HEALTH;    ADULT MORTALITY;    AIDS EPIDEMIC;    AIR POLLUTION;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-4346
RP-ID  :  WPS4346

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

The diffusion of cost-effective lifesaving technologies has reduced infant mortality in much ofthe developing world.Income gains may also play a direct,protective role in ensuring child survival, although theempirical findings to date on this issue have been mixed.This paper assembles data from Demographic and HealthSurveys (DHS) in 59 countries to analyze the relationshipbetween changes in per capita GDP and infant mortality.Theauthors show that there is a strong, negative associationbetween changes in per capita GDP and infant mortality- in afirst-differenced specification the implied elasticity ofinfant mortality with respect to per capita GDP isapproximately -0.56.In addition to this central result,two findings are noteworthy.First, although there is someevidence of changes in the composition of women giving birthduring economic upturns and downturns, the observed changesin infant mortality are not a result of mothers withprotective characteristics timing fertility to correspondwith the business cycle. Second, the association betweeninfant mortality and per capita GDP is particularlypronounced for periods of large contractions in GDP,suggesting the inability of developing country households orhealth systems (or both) to smooth resources.Simpleback-of-the-envelope calculations using the estimatessuggest that there may have been more than 1 million"excess" deaths in the developing world since 1980as a result of large, negative contractions in per capita GDP.