Convergence, Dynamics, andGeography of Economic Growth: The Case of Municipalities inRio Grande do Norte, Brazil

Verner, Dorte ; Tebaldi, Edinaldo

World Bank, Washington, D.C.

关键词: CONVERGENCE ECONOMICS;    DYNAMICS;    GEOGRAPHY;    DEMOGRAPHY;    ECONOMIC GROWTH;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-3302
RP-ID  :  WPS3302

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

Analyses of municipal GDP growth in RioGrande do Norte in the Northeast of Brazil during 1970-96reveal that the cross-section dispersion of per capitaincome increased over time. Although the analysis indicatessome spatial dependence in income, it is small and has adownward trend, indicating that the growth path is onlyweakly determined by geographical links in Rio Grande doNorte. Moreover, dynamic analyses based on the Markov chaintransition matrix show that the probability of amunicipality moving from a poor income class to a rich classis very small and vice-versa. Municipalities located in themiddle-income class have high mobility, but there is nostrong evidence indicating direction. Public policy shouldinclude assisting the rural families by providing themeducation and training that increases their opportunitiesfor employment. There should also be policies to assist poorand unskilled migrants to integrate fully into the moderneconomy in the urban areas through skill developmenttraining and education.