Oil, Agriculture, and the Public Sector : Linking Intersector Dynamics in Ecuador

Fiess, Norbert M. ; Verner, Dorte

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS;    AGRICULTURAL INTENSIFICATION;    AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS;    AGRICULTURAL SECTOR;    AGRICULTURE;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-3094
RP-ID  :  WPS3094

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

In a recent paper, Fiess and Verner(2000) analyse sectoral growth in Ecuador and findsignificant long-run and short-run relationships between theagricultural, industrial and service sectors. They take thisas evidence against the dual economy model which rules out along-run relationship between agricultural and industrialoutput and show further that a more detailed picture of thegrowth process can be discovered, once the agricultural,industrial and service sectors are disaggregated furtherinto intrasector components. This paper extends theirinitial results and provides insight from a multivariatecointegration analysis of intrasector components. Theauthors are able to identify three cointegratingrelationships, each of which has its own meaningful economicinterpretation: Two cointegration relationships capture thedirect and indirect effects of the "petrolization"of the Ecuadorian economy. A third relationship clearlyindicates a link between agriculture and industrialactivity. Since this third cointegrating relationship seemsto coincide in time with the trade liberalisation at the endof the 1980s, promoting agriculture appears to be animportant way to promote sustainable economic growth in Ecuador.