To understand the impacts of supportprograms on global emissions, this paper considers theimpacts of domestic subsidies, price distortions at theborder, and investments in emission-reducing technologies onglobal greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from agriculture. Ituses a counterfactual global model scenario showing how muchemissions from agricultural production would change ifagricultural support were abolished worldwide. The analysisindicates that, without subsidies paid directly to farmers,output of emission-intensive activities and emissions wouldbe smaller. Without trade protection, however, emissionswould be higher. This is because protection reduces globaldemand more than it increases supply, and partly becausesome countries that currently tax agriculture have highemission intensities. Policies that directly reduce emissionintensities yield much larger reductions in emissions thanthose targeting overall productivity growth to reduceemissions because of the rebound effect. Scenario analysisto understand the impacts of repurposed agricultural policyand support measures on mitigation of greenhouse gasemissions and adaptation to climate change is beingundertaken in subsequent work, which will also take accountof land-use change and alternative forms of agriculturalsupport to align objectives of food security, farmers’income security, production efficiency and resilience, andenvironmental protection.
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