Push and Pull : A Study of International Migration from Nepal

Shrestha, Maheshwor

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: migration;    conflict;    liquidity constraints;    remittances;    rainfall;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-7965
RP-ID  :  WPS7965

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

This paper studies migration choices inthe presence of liquidity constraints and varying costs ofmigration. This paper presents a simple theoreticalframework that analyzes migration response to both push andpull factors in such settings. This framework implies that ashock to the push factors in the origin leads todifferential observed response to migration to variousdestinations, as the shocks affect different parts of thewealth distribution. The implications of this framework aretested in the context of international migration from Nepal,using a panel of 452 villages observed at three periods inthe 2000s. The analysis uses rainfall shocks and deaths dueto conflict as "push" shocks and growth inmanufacturing and construction in destination countries as"pull" shocks. The findings show that a rainfallshock that increases household income by US$ 100 increasesmigration to India by 54 percent but has no effect onmigration elsewhere. An increase in conflict, which reducesconsumption and amenity of the wealthier more, increasesmigration abroad, especially from urban areas. An increasein demand from the destination countries, especially theGulf countries and Malaysia, has strong effects on migrationto those destinations. These findings are consistent withthe theoretical framework, and suggest the presence of largeliquidity constraints. An increase in income can boostmigration to India, whereas a reduction in the cost ofmigration might increase profitable migration elsewhere. Theresponsiveness to "pull" shocks suggests thathouseholds are willing to take advantage of these opportunities.