New Evidence on the Cyclicality of Fiscal Policy

Carneiro, Francisco G. ; Garrido, Leonardo

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: OUTPUT VOLATILITY;    MONETARY POLICY;    CAPITAL MARKETS;    CAPITA INCOME;    GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-7293
RP-ID  :  WPS7293

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

This paper presents new evidence on thepatterns of cyclicality in the fiscal policy stance ofdeveloping and industrialized countries over a period ofmore than three decades covering 180 countries during1980–2012. First, the paper considers issues of robustnessin the choice of the proxy for fiscal cyclicality by usingalternative filtering methods to check whether thisinfluences the results and leads to any differences in acountry’s reported within-period average, and across-periodchanges in fiscal stance. Second, a country-specificapproach is used to split the sample into sub-periods basedon a test for structural break in the series of real grossdomestic product per capita. Third, the paper investigatesthe extent to which countries behave pro-cyclically orcounter-cyclically in different phases of the businesscycle. In line with earlier findings in the literature, theanalysis confirms that there is a causal link running fromstronger institutions to less pro-cyclical fiscal policy,even after controlling for the endogeneity of institutionsand other determinants of fiscal policy.