Today, over 4 billion people around theworld—more than half the global population—live in cities.By 2050, with the urban population more than doubling itscurrent size, nearly 7 of 10 people in the world will livein cities. Evidence from today's developed countriesand rapidly emerging economies shows that urbanization andthe development of cities is a source of dynamism that canlead to enhanced productivity. In fact, no country in theindustrial age has ever achieved significant economic growthwithout urbanization. The underlying driver of this dynamismis the ability of cities to bring people together. Socialand economic interactions are the hallmark of city life,making people more productive and often creating a vibrantmarket for innovations by entrepreneurs and investors.International evidence suggests that the elasticity ofincome per capita with respect to city population is between3 percent and 8 percent (Rosenthal & Strange 2003). Eachdoubling of city size raises its productivity by 5 percent.But the coronavirus pandemic is now seriously limitingsocial interactions. With no vaccine available, preventionthrough containment and social distancing, along withfrequent handwashing, appear to be, for now, the only viablestrategies against the virus. The goal is to slowtransmission and avoid overwhelming health systems that havefinite resources. Hence non-essential businesses have beenclosed and social distancing measures, including lockdowns,are being applied in many countries. Will such measuresdefeat the virus in dense urban areas? In principle, yes.Wealthier people in dense neighborhoods can isolatethemselves while having amenities and groceries delivered tothem. Many can connect remotely to work, and some can evenafford to live without working for a time. But poorerresidents of crowded neighborhoods cannot afford suchluxuries. They are forced to leave their home every day togo to work, buy groceries, and do laundry. This isespecially true in low-income neighborhoods of developingcountries – many of which are slums and informalsettlements. In fact, 60 percent of Africa’s urbanpopulation is packed into slums - a far larger share thanthe average 34 percent seen in other developing countries(United Nations 2015). With people tightly packed together,the resulting crowding increases contagion risk from the coronavirus.
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