COVID-19 and Food Protectionism : The Impact of the Pandemic and Export Restrictions on World Food Markets

Espitia, Alvaro ; Rocha, Nadia ; Ruta, Michele

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: CORONAVIRUS;    COVID-19;    PANDEMIC RESPONSE;    FOOD PROTECTIONISM;    TRADE POLICY;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-9253
RP-ID  :  WPS9253

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

This paper analyzes the impact ofCovid-19 and uncooperative trade policies on world foodmarkets. It quantifies the initial shock due to the pandemicunder the assumption that products that are more laborintensive in production are more affected throughworkers' morbidity and containment policies. It thenestimates how escalating export restrictions to shielddomestic food markets could magnify the initial shock. Theanalysis shows that, in the quarter following the outbreakof the pandemic, the global export supply of food coulddecrease between 6 and 20 percent and global prices increasebetween 2 and 6 percent on average. Escalating exportrestrictions would multiply the initial shock by a factor of3, with world food prices rising by up to 18 percent onaverage. Import food dependent countries, which are in largemajority developing and least developed countries, would bemost affected.