Deal or No Deal : Strictly Business for China in Kenya?

Sanghi, Apurva ; Johnson, Dylan

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: TERRORISM;    BASIS POINTS;    CURRENCY APPRECIATION;    EQUIPMENT;    DEVELOPMENT ASSISTANCE;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-7614
RP-ID  :  WPS7614

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

Existing work on China's economicinfluence in Africa refers to Africa in broad terms, therebygeneralizing the results to an extent that is unhelpful forpolicy-makers in a specific country. Moreover, the emphasisis on oil exporters. This paper remedies this by focusing ona single, oil-importing country: Kenya. The paper examinesChina's economic presence in Kenya and some of thepopular myths surrounding Chinese economic activity. Thefirst myth is that Chinese companies do not employ localworkers. In fact, 78 percent of full-time and 95 percent ofpart-time employees in Chinese companies are locals. Second,although China represents a large potential market for localexporters, the study finds that China has a better chance ofexpanding its exports to Kenya than Kenya does to Chinabased on existing specializations. This may change withrecent oil discoveries in Kenya, increasing the space forKenyan exports to China, as well as from China's shiftto a consumption-driven economy which will increase demandfor services, a growing strength of Kenya's economy(World Bank Country Economic Memorandum 2016). The paperemphasizes that Kenyan policy makers should be lessconcerned about bilateral trade imbalances and worry aboutKenya's overall trade balance. However, the StandardGauge Railway and Thika superhighway experiences suggestthat Chinese firms offer relatively few technology transferor supplier opportunities for local firms and academia.Third, the popular focus of Chinese competition is on theimpact on well-organized Kenyan producers and not onconsumers, thereby underestimating the benefits Kenyanconsumer derive from the availability of more affordableChinese goods. The paper concludes with policy directionsfor improving export competitiveness and transparency ininfrastructure projects, and local content.