Policymakers in many countries,including the Russian Federation, are attempting toencourage fertility as part of their response to thechallenge of population aging. Whether pro-natalist policieswill be effective depends crucially on how well they addressthe underlying causes of low fertility and barriers tolarger family size. While in some countries in WesternEurope postponing childbearing and increased childlessnessseem to be driving the fertility decline, these factors donot appear to be as influential in Russia. Instead, theproblem seems to be the relatively low frequency of secondand higher-order births, which persists despite majorchanges to pro-natalist policies introduced in 2007 and theprevalence of the two-child ideal of family size. This studyanalyzes current and prospective fertility trends incontemporary Russia, with special attention to second-childbirth dynamics and its determinants. Stable employment andaccessibility of formal childcare options are found to befactors that are correlated with mothers preferences foradditional children and the probability that they will havea second child. In light of this observation andinternational experience, a menu of policies to improvework-family balance is suggested.
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