Going Beyond the First Child : Analysis of Russian Mothers' Desired and Actual Fertility Patterns

Levin, Victoria ; Besedina, Elena ; Aritomi, Tami

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: IDEAL FAMILY SIZE;    BIRTH;    UNITED NATIONS POPULATION DIVISION;    CAREGIVERS;    FERTILITY BEHAVIOR;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-7643
RP-ID  :  WPS7643

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

The Russian Federation's populationhas been declining since 1992, but recently the declineappears to be over. Although fertility has risen since the2007 introduction of the family policy package, whichfocused on stimulating second and higher-order births, totalfertility rates still remain significantly below replacementrate. Unlike some Western European countries, low overallfertility in Russia can be explained predominantly by a highprevalence of one-child families, despite the two-childideal family size reported by the majority of Russians. Thispaper examines the correlates of Russian first-timemothers' desire and decision to have a second child.Using the 2004–12 waves of the Russia LongitudinalMonitoring Survey, the study focuses on themotherhood-career trade-off as a potential obstacle tohigher fertility in Russia. The preliminary results indicatethat among Russian first-time mothers, being in stableemployment is positively associated with the likelihood ofhaving a second child. Moreover, the desire to have a secondchild is positively associated with the first childattending formal childcare, which suggests that theavailability, affordability, and quality of such childcarecan be important for promoting fertility. These results arebroadly consistent with previous studies in other Europeancountries that indicate that the ability of mothers tocombine work and family has important implications forfertility, and that pro-natalist policies focusing onchildcare accessibility can offer the greatest payoffs. Inaddition to these factors, better housing conditions, beingmarried, having an older child, and having a first-born boyare also positively associated with having a second child.