Hukou and Highways : The Impact of China’s Spatial Development Policies on Urbanization and Regional Inequality

Bosker, Maarten ; Deichmann, Uwe ; Roberts, Mark

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: LIVING STANDARDS;    TRANSPORT SECTOR;    CITY TRANSPORT;    POPULATION DISTRIBUTION;    ECONOMIC GROWTH;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-7350
RP-ID  :  WPS7350

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

China has used two main spatial policiesto shape its geographic patterns of development: restrictedlabor mobility through the Hukou residential registrationsystem and massive infrastructure investment, notably a96,000 kilometer national expressway network. This paperdevelops a structural new economic geography model toexamine the impacts of these policies. Fitting the model toavailable data allows simulating counterfactual scenarioscomparing each policy’s respective impact on regionaleconomic development and urbanization patterns across China.The results suggest large overall economic benefits fromconstructing the national expressway network and abolishingthe Hukou system. Yet, the spatial impacts of the twopolicies are very different. The construction of thenational expressway network reinforced existing urbanizationpatterns. The initially lagging regions not connected to thenetwork have not benefitted much from its construction. Bycontrast, removal of the Hukou restrictions, which Chinesepolicy makers are considering, would result in much morewidespread welfare gains, allowing everyone to gain bymoving to where he or she is most productive. Removal of theHukou restrictions would also promote urbanization incurrently lagging (inland) regions, mostly by stimulatingrural to urban migration.