China's Slowdown and Rebalancing : Potential Growth and Poverty Impacts on Sub-Saharan Africa

Lakatos, Csilla ; Maliszewska, Maryla ; Osorio-Rodarte, Israel ; Go, Delfin

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: GROWTH RATES;    GROWTH RATE;    FINANCIAL SERVICES;    LINES OF CREDIT;    CUSTOMS UNION;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-7666
RP-ID  :  WPS7666

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

This paper explores the economic impactsof two related tracks of China's expectedtransformation—economic slowdown and rebalancing away frominvestment toward consumption—and estimates the spilloversfor the rest of the world, with a special focus onSub-Saharan African countries. The paper finds that anaverage annual slowdown of gross domestic product in Chinaof 1 percent over 2016–30 is expected to result in a declineof gross domestic product in Sub-Saharan Africa by 1.1percent and globally by 0.6 percent relative to the pasttrends scenario by 2030. However, if China'stransformation also entails substantial rebalancing, thenegative income effects of the economic slowdown could beoffset by the positive changes brought along by rebalancingthrough higher overall imports by China and positive termsof trade effects for its trading partners. If global supplyresponds positively to the shifts in relative prices and thenew sources of consumer demand from China, a substantialrebalancing in China could have an overall favorable impacton the global economy. Economic growth could turn positiveand higher on average, by 6 percent in Sub-Saharan Africaand 5.5 percent globally, as compared with the past trendsscenario. Finally, rebalancing reduces the prevalence ofpoverty in Sub-Saharan Africa compared with the isolatednegative effects of China's slowdown, which slightlyincrease the incidence of poverty. Overall, China'sslowdown and rebalancing combined are estimated to increasegross domestic product in Sub-Saharan Africa by 4.7 percentby 2030 and reduce poverty, but the extent of this varies by country.