Which Emerging Markets and Developing Economies Face Corporate Balance Sheet Vulnerabilities? : A Novel Monitoring Framework

Feyen, Erik ; Fiess, Norbert ; Zuccardi Huertas, Igor ; Lambert, Lara

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: CORPORATE VULNERABILITY;    NON-FINANCIAL SECTOR;    DEBT STRUCTURE;    DEVELOPING ECONOMIES;    EMERGING MARKET ECONOMIES;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-8198
RP-ID  :  WPS8198

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

This paper introduces a novel corporatefinancial vulnerability index that tracks financialconditions of the non-financial corporate sector. Using thebalance sheet information of 14,207 listed non-financialfirms in 69 emerging markets and developing economies, theindex shows that, at the global level, corporatevulnerability sharply increased since 2013 and stabilized in2016. Regional trends are more heterogeneous, pointing tosignificant corporate vulnerabilities in Eastern Europe andCentral Asia, as well as a deterioration of firms'financial conditions in Latin America, the Middle East andNorth Africa, and Sub-Saharan Africa in recent years. Theenergy sector has exhibited the fastest deterioration,especially since 2014, in part driven by the decline in oilprices. However, if currently relatively benign globalfunding conditions and higher commodity prices endure,companies may have an opportunity to strengthen theirbalance sheets. The paper also finds that the index hasleading indicator properties for socioeconomic outcomes,such as a rise in unemployment and an economic recession,and outperforms a commonly used "debt at risk" approach.