COVID-19 and EMDE Corporate Balance Sheet Vulnerabilities : A Simple Stress-Test Approach

Feyen, Erik ; Dancausa, Fernando ; Gurhy, Bryan ; Nie, Owen

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: CORONAVIRUS;    COVID-19;    PANDEMIC IMPACT;    EMERGING MARKET ECONOMIES;    CORPORATE VULNERABILITY;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-9324
RP-ID  :  WPS9324

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

This paper conducts a simple stress testto gauge the ability of listed nonfinancial corporates towithstand shocks to earnings and receivables. It targets twobasic accounting ratios that capture a firm's abilityto cover its short-term liabilities and interest expenses.The full sample consists of almost 17,000 firms in 73emerging markets and developing economies and representsUS$22.1 trillion in total assets and US$6.05 trillion intotal debt. The findings show that, prior to the pandemic,almost 60 percent of the debt was associated with firms thatalready exhibited vulnerabilities according to at least oneratio. A 30-percent shock to earnings and receivables raisesthis to 88 percent, of which 29 percentage points isvulnerable in terms of both indicators, a 230-percentincrease compared with before to the pandemic. Firms in EastAsia and Pacific, the Middle East and North Africa, andSouth Asia appear to be the most exposed. Some countrieswith vulnerable corporate sectors also display weaknesses ininsolvency frameworks, which may impede restructurings andwrite-downs and contribute to a surge in sociallyinefficient liquidations of cash-strapped but otherwiseviable firms.