Potential Growth : Outlook and Options for the Russian Federation

Okawa, Yoki ; Sanghi, Apurva

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: ECONOMIC GROWTH;    EMERGING MARKET ECONOMIES;    DEVELOPING ECONOMIES;    STRUCTURAL REFORM;    INVESTMENT;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-8663
RP-ID  :  WPS8663

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

This paper examines the past and futuretrajectory of the Russian Federation's potentialgrowth: the speed at which an economy could grow if allresources were utilized efficiently. The findings show thatit peaked before the 2008 global financial crisis andcontinued to decline up to 2017. The estimated potentialgrowth rate was 3.8 percent in 2000-09 and 1.7 percent in2010-17, a 2.1 percentage point decline. The most recentdeceleration was due to a slowdown of productivity growthand a shrinking potential labor force, rather than ashortfall in capital accumulation. For its futuretrajectory, under the baseline scenario, Russia'spotential growth is expected to continue its gradualdownward trend, from 1.5 percent in 2017 to 1.3 percent in2022. It is expected to recover gradually thereafter,primarily driven by stabilization of the labor force. Thesimulations of proposed reform measures currently beingconsidered by policy makers, including a combination ofpension reform, more migration, higher investment, andgradual acceleration of total factor productivity growth,can double Russia's potential growth rate to 3.0percent by 2028. Under the assumptions discussed in thepaper, pension reform, increases in migration, investment,and productivity contribute 0.4, 0.2, 0.6, and 0.3percentage points, respectively, to the increase inRussia's potential growth rate. Potential growth isfound to be most sensitive to changes in total factorproductivity growth, suggesting that reforms that increaseproductivity may have the most impact on boostingRussia's potential growth.