A Product Space Perspective on Structural Change in Morocco

Osorio Rodarte, Israel ; Lofgren, Hans

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: GROWTH RATE;    MERCHANDISE;    EXPORT GROWTH;    EXPORT MARKETS;    ECONOMIC GROWTH;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-7438
RP-ID  :  WPS7438

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

Drawing on international trade data,this paper uses the product space approach to analyzechanges in Morocco’s goods exports in 1990–2010 and futureexport priorities. The level of Morocco’s gross domesticproduct and its moderate growth match the predictions ofproduct space analysis, informed by changes in the incomepotential of Morocco’s export basket, reflecting relativelystrong capabilities (a high density) in products withrelatively low potentials in income and diversification.Morocco’s peripheral position in the product space mapmatches its slow growth and points to the difficulty ofdiversification into more sophisticated products.Encouraging changes since 1990 include the development of arevealed comparative advantage for medium- and high-techmanufactures, which in 2010 represented around 40 percent oftotal goods exports. However, the number of goods involvedis relatively small and this transformation has not sufficedto raise per capita growth to the average for middle-incomecountries. Export projections up to 2025 suggest that futuredevelopments will follow the trends of the past. Amongsectors, high growth is likely for phosphate-basedfertilizer exports. However, like edible oil products, whichalso may grow rapidly, phosphates are hampered by low incomeand diversification potentials. Along with various othermanufactured products, electronics and the automotiveindustry are promising sectors that may offer more lastingpositive contributions to Morocco’s future development.Beyond goods, Morocco’s policy makers should also considerthe potential contributions of service exports, which inrecent years have enjoyed rapid growth.