After stagnating for much of itspostcolonial history, economic performance in Sub?SaharanAfrica has markedly improved. Since 1995, average economicgrowth has been close to 5 percent per year. Has Africafinally turned the corner? This paper analyzes growthaccelerations and decelerations-that is, country leveldeviations from long?run trend growth. Seen from thisperspective, Africa's record of slow and volatilegrowth reflects a pattern of offsetting accelerations anddeclines, and much of the improvement in economicperformance in Africa post 1995 turns out to be due to asubstantial reduction in the frequency and severity ofgrowth decelerations. The fall in economic declines since1995 is largely due to better macroeconomic policies, butchanges in such 'growth determinants' asinvestment, export diversification, and productivity havenot accompanied the growth boom. Lack of change in thesevariables and the significant role played by naturalresources in sparking growth accelerations suggest thatAfrica's growth recovery was fragile, even before therecent global economic crisis. The paper concludes bysetting out four elements of a strategy that can help moveAfrica from fewer mistakes to sustained growth: managingnatural resources better, pushing nontraditional exports,building the African private sector, and creating new skills.
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