Is Africa's Economy at a Turning Point?

Arbache, Jorge ; Go, Delfin S. ; Page, John

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: ABSOLUTE VALUE;    ACCOUNTABILITY;    ADJUSTMENT POLICIES;    AGGREGATE INVESTMENT;    AGGREGATE LEVEL;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-4519
RP-ID  :  WPS4519

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

In this paper, Arbache, Go, and Pageexamine the recent acceleration of growth in Africa. Unlikethe past, the performance is now registered broadly acrossseveral types of countries-particularly the oil-exportingand resource-intensive countries and, in more recent years,the large- and middle-income economies, as well as coastaland low-income countries. The analysis confirms a trendbreak in the mid-1990s, identifying a growth accelerationthat is due not only to favorable terms of trade and greateraid, but also to better policy. Indeed, the growthdiagnostics show that more and more African countries havebeen able to avoid mistakes with better macropolicy, bettergovernance, and fewer conflicts; as a result, the likelihoodof growth decelerations has declined significantly.Nonetheless, the sustainability of that growth is fragile,because economic fundamentals, such as savings, investment,productivity, and export diversification, remain stagnant.The good news in the story is that African economies appearto have learned how to avoid the mistakes that led to thefrequent growth collapses between 1975 and 1995. The badnews is that much less is known about the recipes forlong-term success in development, such as developing theright institutions and the policies to raise savings anddiversify exports, than about how to avoid economic bad times.