When the Cycle Becomes the Trend : The Emerging Market Experience with Fiscal Policy during the Last Commodity Super Cycle

Amra, Rashaad ; Hanusch, Marek ; Jooste, Charl

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: BUSINESS CYCLE;    EMERGING MARKET ECONOMIES;    FISCAL POLICY;    COMMODITY PRICES;    FISCAL TRENDS;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-8712
RP-ID  :  WPS8712

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

Fiscal buffers have shrunk across theworld. This paper argues that limited fiscal room inemerging market economies today is partly due to thecommodity super cycle of 2000-15. The super cycle createdthe mirage that economic performance had structurallyimproved, mistaking a long, commodity-fueled uptick in thebusiness cycle for higher trend growth. This thinkingsupported fiscal expansions. When the commodity boom ended,it became apparent that countries had saved less than theyshould have, and that fiscal policy had, perhapsinadvertently, been pro-cyclical. It left countries withdepleted fiscal buffers and large budgets when the cyclecame to an end, limiting room for fiscal stimulus whenneeded. The paper illustrates the argument with reference tothe South African experience.