Fiscal Vulnerabilities in Commodity Exporting Countries and the Role of Fiscal Policy

Richaud, Christine ; Galego Mendes Galego, Arthur ; Ayivodji, Firmin ; Matta, Samer ; Essl, Sebastian

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: EMERGING MARKET ECONOMIES;    FISCAL POLICY;    CONTINGENT LIABILITY;    DEBT MANAGEMENT;    COMMODITY PRICES;   

RP-ID  :  139449

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

The paper updates the analysis of thefiscal policy response over the recent commodity cycle,contributes to the analysis of key drivers of fiscal policyprocyclicality, and provides a stock-tacking of currentfiscal vulnerabilities. Countercyclical fiscal policy duringgood times has been a key factor affecting the ability ofcommodity exporters to sustainably support economic activitywhen prices started declining. Fiscal space to withstand thenext shock has narrowed in many emerging and developingeconomies (EMDEs) and may also be constrained by contingentliabilities stemming from exposure of state-ownedenterprises and public and systemic banks to thecommodity-sector. Fiscal consolidation is still necessary inmany commodity-exporting EMDEs to reduce debt risks, rebuildfiscal and external buffers, and facilitate access toaffordable financing. Fiscal policy should particularly aimat reducing the high volatility of public investmentspending in commodity-exporting countries, both in good andbad times.