Welfare Dynamics in Colombia : Results from Synthetic Panels

Balcazar, Carlos Felipe ; Dang, Hai-Anh ; Malasquez, Eduardo ; Olivieri, Sergio ; Pico, Julieth

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: WELFARE DYNAMICS;    POVERTY;    VULNERABILITY;    MIDDLE CLASS;    SOCIAL MOBILITY;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-8441
RP-ID  :  WPS8441

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

This study explores the short-runtransitions between poverty, vulnerability, and middleclass, using synthetic panels constructed from multiplerounds of Colombia's Integrated Household Survey (inSpanish Gran Encuesta Integrada de Hogares). The paperreports results from two approaches to define avulnerability line: the first one employs a nonparametricand parsimonious model, while the second utilizes a fullyparametric regression model with covariates. The estimationresults suggest a range of between $8 to $13 per day perperson in 2005 purchasing power parity dollars as thevulnerability line. Using an average daily vulnerabilityline of $10 per day per person, subsequent estimates onwelfare dynamics suggest that, during the past decade, 20percent of the Colombian population experienced downwardmobility, and 24 percent experienced upward mobility.Furthermore, upward mobility increases with higher educationlevels and is lower for female-headed households.