Is Poverty in Africa Mostly Chronic or Transient? : Evidence from Synthetic Panel Data

Dang, Hai-Anh H. ; Dabalen, Andrew L.

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: CHRONIC POVERTY;    WELFARE DYNAMICS;    VULNERABILITY;    MIDDLE CLASS;    PRO-POOR GROWTH;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-8033
RP-ID  :  WPS8033

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

Absent actual panel household surveydata, this paper constructs, for the first time, syntheticpanel data for more than 20 countries accounting fortwo-thirds of the population in Sub-Saharan Africa. In thisprocess, the analysis employs repeated cross sections thatspan, on average, a six-year period for each country. Theanalysis suggests that all these countries as a whole havehad pro-poor growth. One-third of the poor populationescaped poverty during the studied period, which is largerthan the proportion of the population that fell into povertyin the same period. The region also saw a 9 percentreduction in poverty and a 28 percent increase in the sizeof the middle class. However, chronic poverty remains high,and a considerable proportion of the population isvulnerable to falling into poverty. There is some limitedevidence that most resource-rich and middle-income countrieshave more upward mobility than downward mobility.Post-secondary education is especially strongly associatedwith higher upward mobility and less downward mobility,which holds to some extent for female-headed and urban households.