Conflict and Poverty in Afghanistan's Transition

Floreani, Vincent A. ; Lopez-Acevedo, Gladys ; Rama, Martin

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: conflict;    foreign aid;    poverty;    living standards;    conflict intensity;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-7864
RP-ID  :  WPS7864

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

Despite record economic growth for morethan a decade, poverty has remained stubbornly high inAfghanistan, especially in the regions that suffered lessfrom conflict. This paper aims to explain this paradox bycombining a model of conflict intensity at the provincelevel over period 2007-14 with a model of consumption at thehousehold level in 2011. Provincial data show that higherlevels of conflict were positively correlated with both alarger presence of troops (international and Afghan) andlarger aid flows. Household data show that the negativeimpact of conflict on consumption was more than offset bythe positive impact of aid and troops. According to theestimates, Afghan troops contributed more to povertyreduction than international troops, possibly because theyspent more locally. The paper uses the estimated models toconduct an out-of-sample validation exercise, focusing onthe transition initiated in 2014. The results should beinterpreted with caution, as the quantitative models cannotaccount for strategic shifts in the insurgency and watershedpolitical developments. But they suggest that the reductionin the number of international troops and declining foreignaid flows led to an increase in conflict intensity and adecline in consumption per capita, matching current trends.