Welfare Dynamics with Synthetic Panels : The Case of the Arab World in Transition

Dang, Hai-Anh H. ; Ianchovichina, Elena

关键词: HOUSEHOLD SURVEY;    CAPITA INCOME;    POVERTY LINE;    ECONOMIC GROWTH;    NON-POOR GROUP;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-7595
RP-ID  :  WPS7595

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

This paper studies welfare dynamics,especially changes associated with middle-class status incountries in the Middle East and North Africa, before andafter the Arab Spring transitions, using objective andsubjective welfare measures. Absent panel data, the analysisemploys state-of-the-art synthetic panel techniques usingrepeated cross sections of expenditure data from householdsurveys and subjective well-being data from value surveys,which were conducted during the 2000s and the Arab Springperiod. The objective welfare dynamics indicate mixedtrends. About half the poor in the 2000s moved out ofpoverty by the end of the decade, but chronic povertyremained high; upward mobility was strong in Syria andTunisia, but downward mobility was pronounced in Yemen andEgypt. Subjective well-being dynamics suggest negativedevelopments in most countries during the Arab Springtransitions. Low education achievement, informal workerstatus, and rural residency are positively associated withlower than average chances for upward mobility, and greaterthan average chances for downward mobility according to bothtypes of welfare measures.