Trade Effects of the New Silk Road : A Gravity Analysis

Baniya, Suprabha ; Rocha, Nadia ; Ruta, Michele

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE;    TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE;    GIS ANALYSIS;    TRADE FLOWS;    TIME SENSITIVITY;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-8694
RP-ID  :  WPS8694

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

This paper takes a first look at thetrade effects of China's Belt and Road Initiative, alsoreferred to as the New Silk Road, on the 71 countriespotentially involved. The initiative consists of severalinfrastructure investment projects to improve the land andmaritime transportation in the Belt and Road Initiativeregion. The analysis first uses geo-referenced data andgeographical information system analysis to compute thebilateral time to trade before and after the Belt and RoadInitiative. Then, it estimates the effect of improvement inbilateral time to trade on bilateral export values and tradepatterns, using a gravity model and a comparative advantagemodel. Finally, the analysis combines the estimates from theregression analysis with the results of the geographicalinformation system analysis to quantify the potential tradeeffects of the Belt and Road Initiative. The paper findsthat (i) the Belt and Road Initiative increases trade flowsamong participating countries by up to 4.1 percent; (ii)these effects would be three times as large on average iftrade reforms complemented the upgrading in transportinfrastructure; and (iii) products that use time sensitiveinputs and countries that are highly exposed to the newinfrastructure and integrated in global value chains havelarger trade gains.