Kazakhstan is an upper-middle income,resource rich country. Its ascent to upper-middle incomestatus was propelled by rising oil production and boomingoil prices which pushed the average annual rate to above 7percent during 2000-2013. The halving of world oil pricesand lower export demand since resulted in a sharp slowdownwith an average annual GDP growth rate of 2.2 percent in2014-17. Growth picked up modestly recently but remains afar cry from the levels seen in early 2000s. Furthermore,the COVID-19 pandemic and the slump in commodity pricesfurther dents the growth outlook. This note assesses thepotential impact of BRI over connectivity and the Kazakheconomy. It looks at how, if fully implemented globally, theBRI is expected to achieve better transport connections andgreater economic integration of participating BRI countries,discusses improvements in Kazakhstan’s cross-bordertransport, electricity and ICT infrastructure to-date, andthe potential impact of the completion of BRI transportprojects on lowering Kazakh shipment time. It further looksat the likely economic impact of BRI reductions in shipmenttime on exports, FDI and GDP, the within country regionaldistribution of that impact and how complementary policescan enhance the positive impact and reduce regionalinequity. Finally, it also examines the fiscal risk ofscaling-up investment in BRI projects in the coming yearswithout undermining medium-term debt sustainability.
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