South Caucasus and Central Asia - The Belt and Road Initiative : Georgia Country Case Study

World Bank

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE;    TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE;    TRADE LOGISTICS;    PUBLIC INVESTMENT;   

RP-ID  :  150331

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

Georgia is the only country in the CACregion that can access markets around the world through itsown seaports and thus less dependent on China’s BRI overlandcorridors for trade, investment and growth. Nevertheless,the Georgian government is investing in the one BRI corridorChina,Europe route that passes through the Caucuses,partly because it provides a faster route to China. Thepotential for larger volume of Chinese transit cargo on thisroute may also be attractive given its desire to become amajor transit and trading hub in the region. With greaterpeople-to-people contact between China and Georgia, therecould also be greater access to China’s outward FDI underthe BRI that would bring with it capital, better technologyas well as managerial and marketing know-how. Chineseprivate firms are already investing in Tbilisi, Kutaisi andother areas in the country. Georgia’s liberal investment andtrade regime, especially its free trade agreements with theEuropean Union (EU), China, Turkey, and its location, makeit eminently suited for such FDI inflows, includingparticipation in China-centric Global Value Chains (GVCs).This note assesses the potential impact of BRI overconnectivity and the Georgian economy. It looks at how, iffully implemented globally, the BRI is expected to achievebetter transport connections and greater economicintegration of participating BRI countries, discussesimprovements in Georgia’s cross-border transport,electricity and ICT infrastructure to-date, and thepotential impact of the completion of BRI transport projectson lowering Georgia’s shipment time. It further looks at thelikely economic impact of BRI reductions in shipment time onexports, FDI and GDP, the within-country regionaldistribution of that impact and how complementary policescan enhance the positive impact, mitigate risks and reduceregional inequity. Finally, it also examines the fiscal riskof scaling-up investment in BRI projects in the coming yearswithout undermining medium-term debt sustainability.