What Explains Agricultural Price Movements?

Baffes, John ; Haniotis, Tassos

关键词: FOOD PRICE;    MARKET DEVELOPMENTS;    MONETARY POLICY;    UNCERTAINTIES;    PRICE LEVELS;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-7589
RP-ID  :  WPS7589

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

After 2005, commodity prices experiencedtheir longest and broadest boom since World War II.Agricultural prices have now come down considerably sincetheir 2011 peak, but are still 40 percent higher in realterms than their 2000 lows. This paper briefly addresses themain arguments on the causes of the agricultural pricecycle. It broadens the scope of analysis by focusing on sixagricultural commodities, and identifies the relativeweights of key quantifiable drivers of their prices. Itconcludes that increases in real income negatively affectreal agricultural prices, as predicted by Engel's Law.Energy prices matter most (not surprisingly, given theenergy-intensive nature of agriculture), followed bystock-to-use ratios and, to a lesser extent, exchange ratemovements. The cost of capital affects prices onlymarginally, probably because it not only influences demand,but also evokes a supply response.