Analyzing Food Price Trends in the Context of Engel’s Law and the Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis

Baffes, John ; Etienne, Xiaoli L.

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: PRODUCER PRICE INDEX;    GROWTH RATES;    FOOD PRICE;    MONETARY POLICY;    UNDERDEVELOPED COUNTRIES;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-7424
RP-ID  :  WPS7424

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

Income growth in emerging economies hasoften been cited as a key driver of the past decade’scom-modity price boom—the longest and broadest boom sinceWorld War II. This paper shows that income has a negativeand highly significant effect on real food commodity prices,a finding that is consistent with Engel’s Law andKindleberger’s thesis, the predecessors of thePrebisch-Singer hypothe-sis. The paper also shows that, inthe long run, income influences real food prices mainlythrough the manufacturing price channel (the deflator),hence weakening the view that income growth exerts strongupward pressure on food prices. Other (short-term) driversof food prices include energy costs, inventories, andmonetary conditions.